Bitcoin could drop below $40k from here.

in hive-175254 •  5 months ago 


It's a new year and hopes are really high for Bitcoin to set a new all-time high during the early part of this year. Will January be the month when that happens?

Bitcoin has been trading below 200 DMA for a number of days now. That is a cause of concern for me. RSI is not gaining any significant momentum and has been moving sideways. Volumes have also been declining during the last few months, as shown in the chart below.


Volume and price action suggest negative performance from Bitcoin in the near-term horizon. It looks more likely to me that Bitcoin is headed to $40k or below.

Bitcoin Open interest has been on the rise, as shown below.


Some reports suggest that Bitcoin's open interest is back at levels when Bitcoin had hit its current all-time high. I do not have the updated chart but I think we are far from that level. The good thing is that open interest in the futures market is rising.

The other thing to look at is the funding rate.


One needs to compare this chart with the price chart and that will tell us that when markets are overbought, funding rates are high. When markets are oversold, funding rates are negative. Funding rates indicate that Bitcoin is in fact quite neutral and a move in either direction is possible.

The last factor, that I do not think is very significant is seasonality.


January has not been a great month for Bitcoin historically. 60% of the times Bitcoin has had a negative return for the month of January.

Overall, price action, volume, funding rates and seasonality, all point to a drop in Bitcoin price from current levels. Open interest is rising but that optimism can go away quickly and Bitcoin needs more fuel for liftoff. I feel sub $40k is on the cards.

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Greetings friend @karamyog, the behavior of BTC in the last bullish momentum, according to the chart you share, apparently had the same behavior, it was several days below the 200 EMA and then began its bullish run, let's hope that scenario repeats itself.

Long term bull trend is still intact. Bitcoin will go up. Everyone wants to know when :) including myself.

Greetings @karamyog

Last year we have seen many ups and downs in bitcoin, after going through these statistics I can say that it can be happen

Thank you for sharing

Yeah, adding to these stats is the Fed. That will surely push Bitcoin below $40k.

Comparto su opinión amigo @karamyog, la liquidez del activo Bitcoin indica ineficiencia y escasez para sobrepasar los 70k

Can you translate this in English. I do not understand Spanish (i hope my guess here is right) at all.

I share your opinion friend @karamyog, the liquidity of the Bitcoin asset indicates inefficiency and scarcity to surpass 70k.

I share your opinion friend @karamyog, the liquidity of the Bitcoin asset indicates inefficiency and scarcity to surpass 70k.

Hello @karamyog!

And here I am reading this post in a time that BTC is falling down to 44K range. I heard and read from many, very professional traders that this season will be alt season. The instability of BTC is really scary for the coins that are affected with every single movement of its price. I admit that I lost quite a lot lately from trading yet they are mistakes that I learn from, so I will just focus on learning more on what to do with the current situation of the market.

Thanks for sharing!

There can be no altcoin season if Bitcoin is in correction mode. There may be some groups that push alts higher only to ruin retail traders but altcoin season can happen only if Bitcoin is consolidating or going up. Basic market principles. Bitcoin is the reserve asset of the crypto world. Most adopted worldwide. All other alts are beta plays.

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Thanks for shearing your valuable post with us right now this is one of the most liked coin but right now also this is one of the most disliked coin. this is two part of one coin head and tell but it'll increased accelerated in few month.

Thanks brother we'll meet again.

Well, everyone hopes for a parabolic run up. It will happen during the last leg of this bull run.